Urhwebo lwesinyithi se-cyber: imbonakalo yemarike yobhedu yehlabathi ka-2026–2030

I. Umbono oPhambili: Ubhedu luhlala kwiNqanawa yeNkunzi yexesha elide, kodwa ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso kuya kunyuka kakhulu

UCyberber ukholelwa ukuba imakethi yobhedu olucociweyo ukusuka ngo-2026 ukuya ku-2030 iya kugcina ibhalansi eqinileyo ukuya kwipateni ye-deficit ephakathi, kunye ne-avareji yonyaka yeziko lamaxabiso kulindeleke ukuba litshintshe liye phezulu unyaka nonyaka ngaphakathi koluhlu lwe-I-US$10,800–12,500 ngetoni nganyeAbaqhubi abaphambili baquka:

• Imfuno enzima ekhulayoukusuka kutyalo-mali lwegridi yamandla kunye nokwakhiwa kweziko ledatha (isantya sokukhula kwe-compound yonyaka esiqikelelwayo se-4.8%–5.5%);
• Ukulibaziseka kwemijikelo yenkcitho-mali ekupheleni kwezemigodi, nto leyo ebangele ukwehla kwesantya sokunikezelwa kwezinto ezintsha kwi-intanethi (ukukhula kwemveliso yobhedu eyombiweyo kwihlabathi liphela kuphela1.2%–1.8% ngonyakaukususela ngo-2026 ukuya ku-2028);
• Imiqobo kwinkqubo yokuphinda usebenzise i-crip copper kwiindawo ezinkulu ngenxa yemithetho yokusingqongileyo kunye nemiqobo yokuqokelela, nto leyo ekhokelela ekubeni ukutshintshwa kwayo kube lula kunokulindelekileyo.

Kwangaxeshanye, izinto eziguquguqukayo kwezoqoqosho kunye nezopolitiko ziya kubangela ukuba ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso kwande ngakumbi xa kuthelekiswa nexesha lika-2021-2024. Ukutshintsha kwamaxabiso ngekota kulindeleke ukuba kufikelelwe18%–25%, ukudala amathuba amakhulu okukhusela kunye namathuba enzuzo yesakhiwo kumashishini anezakhono ezipheleleyo zolawulo lomngcipheko.

II. Izaziso zoMngcipheko eziPhakathi

Ukususela kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2026 ukuya kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2027, ithuba lexeshana lokunciphisa ukungalingani kokunikezelwa kwempahla nemfuno kunokuvela, ngokuyintloko okubangelwa zezi zinto zilandelayo:

• Ukuma kancinci kwincopho yomjikelo wotyalo-mali lwegridi yamandla eTshayina;
• Ukucotha kwesantya sokwakhiwa kweziko ledatha eYurophu nase-United States;
• Ukwanda kwemveliso ngaphambi kwexesha elicwangcisiweyo kwimigodi emitsha ethile ePeru naseChile.

Ukuba iFederal Reserve iqalisa umjikelo omtsha wokunciphisa inzala ngo-2026, ukwehla ngokukhawuleza kwireferensi yedola yaseMelika kuya kwandisa iimpawu zemali zekopolo, okunokubangela ukuba amaxabiso anyuke kakhulu ngaphambi kokuba arhoxe ngokukhawuleza.

Iingxabano zezopolitiko okanye utshintsho kwimigaqo-nkqubo kumazwe amakhulu avelisa ubhedu (umz., utshintsho lwerhafu yezemigodi eChile okanye ingxaki yamandla eZambia) ziyaqhubeka nokubeka imingcipheko yokungabikho kombane.