I-Cymber Metal Trading Co., Ltd. – imbonakalo yexesha eliphakathi kwimarike yehlabathi ye-aluminium alloy 2026–2030

I-Cymber Metal Trading Co., Ltd.(eza kubizwa ngokuba yi-“Cyber”) kutshanje ipapasheIngxelo yeMid-term Outlook yeMarike ye-Aluminium yeHlabathiigubungela ixesha eliphakathi kuka-2026 no-2030. Ingxelo igqiba kwelokuba, emva kweminyaka emihlanu yokwandiswa ngokukhawuleza kobonelelo olunefuthe ekwahluka kwesakhiwo kwimfuno yokusetyenziswa, imakethi yehlabathi ye-aluminium alloy iya kuphuma kancinci kancinci kwibhalansi yangaphambili ekhululekileyo kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo kwaye ingene kumjikelo omtsha obonakaliswa kukulungelelaniswa kwakhona kobonelelo kunye nokwakhiwa kwakhona kwesakhiwo sokusasazeka kwamaxabiso.

I. Icala Lokubonelela: Ukucotha Kokwandiswa Kwamandla Amatsha, Ijika Leendleko Eliphezulu Lingaphambili

Ukususela ngo-2021 ukuya ku-2025, ukongezwa komthamo omtsha we-aluminium eTshayina, eIndiya, eMzantsi-mpuma Asia, nakuMbindi Mpuma kudlule kwiitoni ezili-12 lezigidi ngonyaka, nto leyo enyusa umthamo osebenzayo kwihlabathi liphela kufutshane neetoni ezili-150 lezigidi. Nangona kunjalo, ukususela ngo-2026, iiprojekthi ze-greenfield ezilindelekileyo ziya kuncipha kakhulu. Ubonelelo oluphambili luya kuncitshiswa kwinani elincinci leeprojekthi zokuqalisa kwakhona okanye zokwandisa esele zivunyiwe, kunye nokukhula komthamo wonyaka kulindeleke ukuba kubuye kwi-1.5–2.5 lezigidi zeetoni.

Kwangaxeshanye, utshintsho oluphezulu kwimigangatho yamaxabiso amandla, ukuphunyezwa ngokusesikweni kweIndlela yoLungiso lweMida yeKhabhoni (i-CBAM), kwaye ubunzulu botshintsho kwimarike yombane eTshayina buya kunyusa kakhulu iindleko ezipheleleyo zomthamo ongaphantsi. Ngokweengqikelelo zikaCymber, iindleko ze-90th percentile kwi-global primary aluminium cost curve emva kowama-2027 kulindeleke ukuba zinyuke nge-18%–25% xa kuthelekiswa nowama-2024, nto leyo ekhokelela ekwehleni okuphawulekayo kokuguquguquka kobonelelo ngokubanzi.

II. Icala leMfuno: Umahluko phakathi kwamacandelo emveli nalawo asakhasayo, kodwa ukuqina ngokubanzi kusekho

Ukususela ngo-2025 ukuya ku-2030, ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium alloys kwihlabathi liphela kulindeleke ukuba kugcine izinga lokukhula konyaka elidibeneyo (i-CAGR) eliyi-2.8%–3.2%, eliqhutywa ikakhulu ngamacandelo amathathu aphambili alandelayo:

1. Ubunzima boThutho (Iimoto zabakhweli + iimoto zorhwebo):
   Ngenxa yokwanda okuqhubekayo kokungena kwezithuthi ezintsha zamandla kwihlabathi liphela, imfuno ye-aluminium alloy sheet, strip, kunye ne-foil kwizicelo zeemoto kulindeleke ukuba ikhule ngesantya sonyaka se-6.5%–7.5%. Ukusetyenziswa okutsha okuqokelelweyo ukususela ngo-2023 ukuya ku-2030 kuqikelelwa ukuba kumalunga ne-8.5 yezigidi zeetoni, nto leyo eyenza ukuba ibe yeyona nto iphambili ekufuneni okukhulayo.
2. I-Photovoltaics kunye noGcino lwaMandla:
   Imfuno yeefreyimu ze-aluminium, izakhiwo zokufakela, kunye ne-foil yebhetri isaqhubeka inamandla, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba i-CAGR ibe malunga ne-5% ukusuka ngo-2026 ukuya ku-2030. Ukukhula kuya kucaca ngakumbi kwiimarike ezingaphandle kweTshayina.
3. Amacandelo eMveli (uLwakhiwo, uPakisho, iiNtambo zoMbane, njl.njl.):
   Ukukhula kwezi ndawo kuya kuncipha ukuya kwi-1%–2% ngonyaka, kodwa isiseko sabo esikhulu siya kuqhubeka nokubonelela ngenkxaso ezinzileyo.

Xa zizonke, ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium alloys kwihlabathi jikelele kulindeleke ukuba kufikelelwe kwi-108–112 yezigidi zeetoni (ixabiso elilinganayo le-aluminium) ngo-2030, nto leyo ebonisa ukunyuka kweetoni ezimalunga ne-18–22 yezigidi xa kuthelekiswa no-2024.

III. Uluhlu lweempahla kunye namaxabiso: Umjikelo wokususa isitokhwe onokwenzeka ukuba uqalise kwikota yesibini ka-2026

Imarike ye-aluminium alloy yehlabathi iya kuhlala ikwisigaba sokuqokelelwa kwezinto ukuya kuthi ga kwi-2024-2025, kunye neempahla ezidityanisiweyo zokutshintshiselana kunye nezo zingaphandle kotshintshiselwano kulindeleke ukuba zifikelele kwinqanaba elimalunga ne-11-12 yezigidi zeetoni ezilinganayo. Njengoko isantya sokongezwa kwezinto ezintsha sincipha kakhulu ngelixa imfuno yothutho kunye namandla amatsha ingena kwisigaba sokukhawulezisa, iCymber ilindele ukuba iimpahla zehlabathi ziya kutshintsha ukusuka ekuqokeleleni ukuya ekutsaleni izinto ukususela kwikota yesibini ka-2026, kunye nomjikelo wokususwa kwesitokhwe onokuthi uqhubeke kude kube sekupheleni kuka-2028.

Kwimeko enjalo, iziko lomxhuzulaneIxabiso le-aluminium le-LME leenyanga ezi-3kulindeleke ukuba inyuke kancinci kancinci ukusuka kuluhlu lwangoku lwe-USD 2,200–2,400 ngetoni. Ixabiso eliphakathi phakathi kowama-2027–2028 liqikelelwa ukuba liza kuba se-Iidola zaseMelika ezingama-2,700–3,000 ngetoni nganyeuluhlu. Ngokunjalo, umndililiIxabiso lendawo laseMzantsi ChinaKwimarike yasekhaya kuqikelelwa ukuba i-RMB 19,500–22,000 ngetoni nganye. Iiprimiyamu ze-alloy kunye nemirhumo yokucubungula iimveliso zephepha, umcu, kunye nefoyile kusenokwenzeka ukuba zifumane inkxaso enamandla phakathi kokuqina kweziseko zobonelelo.